Breaking down StrikeForce

June 5, 2009

**Thanks to doug18 for pointing out in my last update that I forgot about WEC: Faber vs. Brown II on Sunday on VERSUS. Another awesome fight making this weekend one of the best MMA weekends in awhile.**

Photos: Esther Lin, StrikeForce

ICON vs. Rumble in the main event as former ICON champion Robbie Lawler (16-4) faces Rumble on the Rock welterweight champion Jake Shields (22-4-1) at a catch weight of 182 pounds, 3 pounds less than the normal for a middleweight fight. Lawler is 8-1 since leaving the UFC with five straight wins (his only blemish came in Hawaii in a loss to Jason “Mayhem” Miller). Shields has won 11 in a row (last loss in Dec. of 2004), with four of those wins coming in Hawaii (Menne, Okami, Condit, Verissimo).

Obviously it’s a clash of styles between the striker (Lawler) and the jiu-jitsu specialist (Shields). Pretty clear that if the fight stays standing, Lawler has the advantage, but once it goes to the ground, it’s all Shields. Big question is if Lawler has learned anything from the Mayhem fight, when Miller showcased Lawler’s weakness on the ground. If he has grown from that and can stuff some takedowns and force Shields to brawl, then it’s Lawler’s to win. I usually tend to go with the ground guy in these types of fights, so even though I’m a big Lawler fan, I think Shields might ground out a decision.

The suddenly active Andrei Arlovski (5 fights in 16 months) faces undefeated Brett Rogers (9-0) in a heavyweight bout. Arlovski is coming off a KO loss against Fedor Emelianenko while Rogers has just slowly climbed his way up the mountain. This is BY FAR his biggest test to date, and if he beats Arlovski, he’ll suddenly become one of the elite heavyweight fighters in the world. I wasn’t that impressed with his last fight and don’t see him overcoming Arlovski, who despite a 15-6 record, is still one of the top heavyweights in a row. Just look at his losses (Fedor, Sylvia twice, Ricco, Rizzo).

Nick Diaz (19-7) vs. Scott Smith (16-5)

Good chance this steals the fight of the night unless Diaz decides to take Smith down early, which is probably the smart thing to do. But Diaz also likes to entertain and put on exciting fights. That could be a mistake as Smith has tremendous punching power, maybe the hardest puncher at middleweight even though this fight is at a catchweight of 180 pounds. Same deal as Lawler/Shields. Stays standing, Smith wins. Goes to the ground, Diaz wins.

And here’s two photos from the other fights that will definitely be shown on SHOWTIME beginning at 7 p.m. (3 hour tape-delayed) in Hawaii.