December 5, 2009
Winner earns UFC contract:
Roy Nelson vs. Brandon Schaub
Plus
Jon Jones vs. Matt Hamill
Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander
Frankie Edgar vs. Matt Veach
TV: Tape delayed in Hawaii on SPIKE (6 p.m.)

Saturday, December 12
UFC lightweight title fight:
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
Plus
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
Shane Nelson vs. Matt Wiman (may not be televised)
TV: Pay per view

Saturday, December 19
Donald Cerrone vs. Ed Ratcliff
Chris Horodecki vs. Anthony Njokuani
Joseph Benavidez vs. Rani Yahya
Scott Jorgensen vs. Takeya Mizugaki
TV: Tape delayed on VERSUS (6 p.m.)

UFC 106 is tomorrow night from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. Tito Ortiz makes his return to the UFC to fight Forrest Griffin in a rematch from over 3 years ago that Ortiz won by decision. Since then, Ortiz went through a lengthy absence from the cage due to a variety of issues he has had with UFC President Dana White. Meanwhile, Griffin went on to defeat Rampage Jackson for the UFC light heavyweight title, but has since lost to Rashad Evans and Anderson Silva.

Ortiz hasn’t been in the cage since his loss to current champion Lyoto Machida nearly 18 months ago. Both fighters looked to be in great shape as they easily made weight at today weighs-ins. It’ll be very interesting to see how the layoff has affected Ortiz, who already looked to be on the downside of his career when he was last competing regularly. Has the time off helped him or hurt? We’ll find out.

This is also a huge fight for Griffin, who has lost two fights in a row, including a lackluster showing against Silva in August. I think a loss hurts Griffin a lot more than it hurts Ortiz, and I think the long layoff is going to be too much to overcome. I expect another exciting fight like the first time they squared off, but this time, Griffin has his hand raised with a decision victory.

And if you’re not planning on catching it LIVE on PPV, you can at least check out two prelim fights for free on SPIKE, which will feature Maui’s Kendall Grove against Jake Rosholt, who is coming off a win against Chris Leben. Grove had his two-fight winning streak stopped by Ricardo Almeida in his last fight, and like always, he seems to be fighting for his UFC future.

If you do check out the fights, the co-main event between Josh Koscheck and Anthony Johnson should be a fight of the night candidate. Both guys fight exciting styles and have serious knockout ability. I’ve been a fan of Johnson’s since I first saw him light up former X-1 champion Chad Reiner in just 13 seconds, and I predict big things for him, including an eventual welterweight title shot. Koscheck is a perfect matchup for him so be on the lookout for a highlight-reel KO.

Lastly, the PPV will open with Phil Baroni’s return to the Octagon against Amir Sadollah. Always been a big fan of Baroni’s, especially with all the excitement he brought to the Blaisdell Arena when he fought Kala Kolohe Hose, so here’s hoping Baroni’s return to the UFC begins with a win.

Also, local promotion X-1 will be on the Big Island this Saturday for an event called “Lights Out” at the Kekuaokalani Gym in Kona. Hilo’s Chris Cisneros and Kona’s Kaleo Padilla will star in the main event and UFC veteran Wesley “Cabbage” Correira is also slated to be on the card. Doors open at 4 p.m. and get their early as their could be as many as 25 fights that night. Check out X-1 Events for more information.

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There’s been some good discussion on Manny Pacquiao in the comments section. His performance against Miguel Cotto on Saturday night only further proved that he is indeed the best pound-for-pound fighter in boxing today. Floyd Mayweather might have something to say about that, but we ran an interesting story in today’s Star-Bulletin about a casino in Las Vegas that has already put the betting line up for a possible Mayweather/Pacquiao fight. Pacquiao was slated as an early 8:5 favorite, but that number dropped to 7:5 as betters came in putting money on Mayweather.

I’m not going to dive into who I think would win just yet because I still have my doubts the fight will happen. Mayweather at one time wanted a 70/30 share of the purse if he were to fight Pacquiao. Now, with Pacquiao’s popularity at an all-time high, I wouldn’t expect him to get a dime over 50/50. Will Mayweather’s ego be able to handle that? I hope to heck that the fight happens, but knowing how Floyd operates, I think this is going to be an extremely tough fight to put together.

And that’s not even remotely close to being the biggest fight of the day.

That honor belongs to Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto, who will take center stage tonight in Las Vegas in what I anticipate being one of the all-time great boxing fights of the last decade. Pacquiao (49-3-2) will try to become the first fighter to win world titles in seven different weight classes as he steps up to 145 pounds to fight Cotto (34-1) for his WBO welterweight championship.

Pacquiao has become probably the most popular fighter in the world with his recent string of victories, including a second-round destruction of Ricky Hatton and a beating he put on Oscar De La Hoya to send him into retirement. It’s been over four years since we’ve seen Pacquiao lose a fight. Cotto’s lone loss came 16 months ago to Antonio Margarito, who sent Cotto to the hospital after an 11-round TKO. However, Margarito was busted for tampering with his hand wraps, using Plaster of Paris to make his punches feel that much harder, in his next fight against Shane Mosley, and it’s wildly thought he used the same illegal tactics in his fight with Cotto.

Whatever the case, it shocks me to see Pacquiao as a 3:1 favorite in this fight. To me, Cotto’s wins over Joshua Clottey, Michael Jennings, Zab Judah and Mosley are much more impressive than Pacquiao knocking out an incredibly overrated Hatton and an old and aging De La Hoya.

This has all the makings to be one of the great fights of the last 10 years, and it wouldn’t shock me one bit to see Cotto knock off Pacquiao. I think the fight is going the full 12 rounds and in a narrow decision, Pacquiao squeaks one out to set up a Floyd Mayweather bout that would undoubtedly break every PPV and box office record out there.

Couture/Vera, Pacquiao/Cotto. Who y’all got?

Courtesy of Esther Lin, StrikeForce

It’s very interesting to listen to the wavering opinions of Fedor Emelianenko following his second-round TKO victory over Brett Rogers on Saturday night.

Seems to be split between people that were not impressed with his performance and felt he should have run through Rogers like he was a tomato can, and those that thought him knocking out Rogers was indeed an impressive feat.

My view on Fedor hasn’t changed. He’s still the best heavyweight in the world. However, I have no idea who wins between him and Brock Lesnar. Rogers showed everyone the way to beat Fedor. A much bigger and stronger brawler that gets in your face and throws heavy punches. Can Lesnar do that? Sure, which is why I think he has a chance. But Rogers also showed an ability that if Fedor got him on the ground, he could survive and eventually get back to his feet without being submitted. Does Lesnar have that ability? That’s the million dollar question.

What I do know is that Brett Rogers isn’t a joke and isn’t a one-year wonder. You saw a guy that had worked on his game tremendously in recent months and has a desire to be the very best. If he walked into the UFC right now, I’d put Rogers on par with a Cain Velasquez or Shane Carwin and just a shade under Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Lesnar. The guy is legit and I’m looking forward to seeing him fight in the future.

Also, congratulations to former Icon champion Jason “Mayhem” Miller, who may have come up short against Jake Shields, but definitely won more fans with his performance. Shields is a world-class fighter, but he is not the guy you want to showcase if you’re trying to gain viewership. Very technical fight on the ground that I enjoyed, but I doubt it was a fight for mainstream fans.

Overall a fun card to watch and a great alternative to the UFC. I hope StrikeForce sticks around.

At today’s weigh-ins, StrikeForce announced its newest signee, DREAM lightweight champion Shinya Aoki, which got me thinking. Imagine the five title fights that could be put together between StrikeForce and the UFC.

HW: Fedor Emelianenko (SF) vs. Brock Lesnar (UFC)
LHW: Gegard Mousasi (SF) vs. Lyoto Machida (UFC)
MW: Robbie Lawler or Cung Le (SF) vs. Anderson Silva (UFC)
WW: Jake Shields (SF) vs. Georges St-Pierre (UFC)
LW: Shinya Aoki (or Josh Thomson) (SF) vs. BJ Penn (UFC)

Obviously the biggest mismatch is at middleweight, but I say StrikeForce wins both the HW and LHW matchups and I’ve been dying to see Shields fight St-Pierre for years now. I think Thomson gives Penn a tougher fight than Aoki, but an Aoki/Penn matchup would also be exciting.

As for the Shogun/Machida fight, a couple of things I’d like to point out.

I give credit to the argument that “robbed” might be too strong of a word. Granted, Shogun didn’t decisively go out there and knock out Machida and win the title, and in fact, it was a close fight. I’ll give you guys in the comments section that.

However, I saw the fight with no audio and I clearly had Shogun dominating the fight. You know, when Dana White and a lot of people say Shogun should have went out there and gone crazy in Round 5 and made a statement, I think that’s crazy talk. If you’re Shogun, and like me, thought you were way ahead in the fight, why would you go out there, change what you’ve been doing that’s worked the entire fight, and risk getting countered and knocked out by a guy known for that ability when you’re ahead? Imagine if he did that and got knocked out. EVERYONE would be all over him for going away from his game plan after winning most of the exchanges for the first four rounds.

People have different things they look for in a fight, but to me, I will ALWAYS, ALWAYS give the guy who is coming forward and standing in the middle of the ring doing most of the attacking the benefit of the doubt. I agree that you should have to beat the champion to be a champion, but that argument gets thrown out of the equation when the champ is running around afraid to engage and doing nothing but waiting to counter.

Also, Shogun has been medically suspended for 60 days for an upper lip laceration. Shogun? Nothing.

And if you care to look at stats, the Web site fightmetric.com always puts up stats for fights and here’s what it came up with for this one.

Machida
power shots to head: 8 of 49
jabs to head: 6 of 16
power shots to body: 23 of 35
jabs to body: 1 of 1
power shots to leg: 2 of 6
jabs to leg: 2 of 9

Shogun
power shots to head: 12 of 31
jabs to head: 5 of 17
power shots to body: 16 of 29
jabs to body: 0 of 1
power shots to leg: 48 of 68
jabs to leg: 1 of 3
Without putting too much stock into this, the only two real differences in this is Shogun was a lot more efficient striking to the head and absolutely destroyed Machida with leg kicks.

Robbed? OK, maybe too strong. But Mauricio “Shogun” Rua should be UFC light heavyweight champion heading into a rematch.

I’ll update more later.

A quick look at UFC 104, live on pay-per-view tomorrow night beginning at 4 p.m. Hawaii time.

MAIN EVENT
UFC LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Lyoto Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio Rua (18-3)

Machida finally reached championship status with a brutal KO of Rashad Evans. His first title defense comes against a man that I thought was the best 205-pound fighter in the world in PRIDE in “Shogun” Rua. Unfortunately, the rules are a little different in the UFC and we haven’t had a chance to see Rua unleash his stomps and kicks that overwhelmed the best of the best. Machida has been unstoppable in his UFC career. He’s dominated everyone he’s faced and he’s barely had to withstand any offense from his opponents.

I hyped Shogun when he arrived in the UFC and while he hasn’t been impressive, a knockout of Chuck Liddell and a very uninspiring win over Mark Coleman is apparently enough to get a title shot. I would love to see the Shogun of PRIDE show up to this fight, but even then, I’m not sure he could solve the riddle known as Lyoto Machida. Here’s hoping for fireworks and to my statement a year ago that Rua would be champion by the end of 2009, but I just can’t see him getting past Machida. Another TKO victory for the champ.

Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6)

Velasquez is the big up-and-comer in the heavyweight division and will be tested by the veteran Rothwell. This is another chance for Velasquez to prove he is the prospect everyone is hyping him up as. A knockout of Rothwell would really elevate his status to title fight level, but it won’t be easy. Rothwell’s only loss in his last 15 fights is to Andrei Arlovski, but this is his first fight in the UFC, so even the much more experienced fighter will likely have quite a few butterflies in his stomach as he enters the cage. Good solid matchup between two heavyweight bruisers, but I’ll take Velasquez with a bunch of takedowns and ground-and-pound to grind out a victory.

Besides these two fights, not the most intriguing card for me. The rest of the fights are as follows:

Gleison Tibau (29-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1)
Joe Stevenson (35-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (24-4)
Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3) vs. Anthony Johnson (7-2)
Ryan Bader (10-0) vs. Eric Schafer (13-3-2)
Antoni Hardonk (8-5) vs. Patrick Barry (4-1)
Yushin Okami (24-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1)
Jorge Rivera (16-7) vs. Rob Kimmons (22-4)
Kyle Kingsbury (7-2, 1 NC) vs. Razak Al-Hassan (7-1)
Stefan Struve (21-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)

The UFC has officially announced the BJ Penn/Diego Sanchez main event for UFC 107 at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tenn., on Saturday night, Dec. 12.

“In this sport it sometimes takes years for fighters to find the weight class where they’re at their best,” UFC President Dana White said in the press release. “I don’t think there’s any question that BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez have finally found their homes at 155 pounds, making the UFC 107 main event a fight between the best Penn and Sanchez we’ve ever seen. BJ hasn’t lost in this weight class in years, and Diego has looked unstoppable in his lightweight fights, and when these two meet in the center of the Octagon, it’s going to make our first trip to Memphis one fight fans will never forget.”

Also announced officially is a heavyweight showdown between former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir and Cheick Kongo and a welterweight bout featuring Thiago Alves against Paulo Thiago. Alves most recently lost a five-round decision against Georges St-Pierre.

Bouts rumored for the card, but not official, include a very intriguing fight between Kenny Florian and Clay Guida and a bunch of fighters from the current Ultimate Fighter reality show, including possibly, Kimbo Slice.

The card was supposed to have the fight between Ultimate Fighter reality show coaches Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans, but Jackson asked to move the fight back after signing to do a movie and has recently stated that he has “retired” from the UFC. Let’s see how long that lasts…