Well that was a mess. No comments on the UFC video and I couldn’t log in here to get this breakdown up earlier in the week.
ANYWAY, UFC 101 is tonight and here’s a look at the biggest fights on the card.
Photos courtesy Ultimate Fighting Championship
UFC lightweight championship fight
B.J. Penn (13-5-1) vs. Kenny Florian (13-3)
Penn returns to the 155-pound division against the clear-cut No. 1 contender in Florian who has won his last six fights. Florian is a very diverse striker and has excellent ground skills. Easily the toughest test Penn has had since returning to the lightweight division, but oddsmakers still have the Prodigy at more than a 2:1 favorite.
The goal for Florian is obviously to stay out of Penn’s way early, get the fight into the championship rounds, and try to hopefully take over then. Penn, however, looks great and UFC President Dana White was quoted as saying Penn’s in the best shape he has ever seen. That would help in this fight if I thought it was going to go the distance, but I don’t. Penn TKO’d Sherk, but in wins against Joe Stevenson and Jens Pulver, his best friend was the rear naked choke. I think we see that same Penn in this fight, taking advantage of an early mistake by Florian to get his back and work a rear naked choke submission in either the first or second round. Penn retains the title and gets ready for his next defense against Diego Sanchez.
Anderson Silva (24-4) vs. Forrest Griffin (16-5)
One is the current champion at a lower weight class, the other is a former champion at this weight class. Forrest Griffin was chosen as Silva’s opponent for the simple fact that every time Forrest gets in the ring, he comes right at you and doesn’t stop. Silva is coming off two straight lackluster fights, but Griffin is the guy to press the action and give Silva a high-octane fight no matter what he tries.
Unfortunately, it plays right into the hands of the most dominant striker in all of MMA. Silva will use his incredible stand-up skills to pick apart Griffin as he comes in swinging wildly. Maybe Griffin tries to change it up and go for takedowns, but I doubt it. That’s not who he is. Expect Anderson to pick apart Griffin early and often and finish this fight in the first round, showing the Anderson Silva of old.
Kendall Grove (12-5) vs. Ricardo Almeida (10-3)
Kendall Grove looks to make it three straight wins with a victory over Ricardo Almeida. This fight is pretty simple. If you’re a Grove fan, feel good when the fight is on the feet and be worried if it hits the ground. Almeida is a horse on the ground and if he can get Grove down on the mat and keep him there, it will be a long night for the Maui native.
The big advantage for Grove is his reach. At 6-foot-6, it’s going to be extra hard for Almeida to shoot in and get a takedown without eating some vicious knees that we’ve seen from Grove. If Grove can frustrate Almeida and stop his takedowns early, he can then pick him apart standing with his superior striking ability. Almeida is a slight favorite in this fight, and I can see him maybe getting a takedown or two, but ultimately, Grove will be able to scramble back to his feet and will catch Almeida in an exchange, ending the fight by TKO in the second round.
Shane Nelson (13-3) vs. Aaron Riley (27-11-1)
Without really doing any serious research, I was thinking back to some of the famous rematches in UFC history and who won. Georges St-Pierre beat B.J. Penn for the second time in a row, but in the other ones I thought of (Couture/Liddell, Hughes/Penn, Penn/Pulver, Mir/Lesnar, Henderson/Silva, Hughes/St-Pierre), the guy who lost came back to win the next fight.
I don’t know if that means it’s harder to beat a guy twice in a row or not, but that’s the obstacle facing Nelson in his rematch with Riley after the first fight was stopped prematurely. Nelson was the underdog in that fight and is again here, but has gone through the best training camp of his career working with Penn in California. I expect a very close fight that could go either way, but I don’t like the odds of beating a guy twice in a row, especially when the two are so closely matched. I think Riley spoils a 3-0 night for Hawaii fighters with a TKO win of his own, but don’t count Nelson out one bit.
UFC 101: Declaration
Oceanic PPV (Dig. 701/1701)
4 p.m. Hawaii time
$56.99
In advance of UFC 101 coming up next weekend, I will be talking to all three Hawaii guys fighting on the show. We’ll have our advance come out next week, but if anyone has any questions they would like me to ask either B.J. Penn, Kendall Grove or Shane Nelson, feel free to leave them in the comment box or e-mail them to me and I will try to ask as many as I can.
Here’s the story from the Associated Press on Josh Barnett testing positive for steroids. This is a huge blow for Affliction as we were just over a week away from what I thought would be one of the three biggest MMA fights of the year…
By DAVE SKRETTA
AP Sports Writer
Former heavyweight champion Josh Barnett tested positive for steroids and was scrapped from the main event of the “Affliction: Trilogy” show on Wednesday, less than two weeks before he was scheduled to fight Fedor Emelianenko in Anaheim, Calif.
The California State Athletic Commission denied Barnett a license to fight on the mixed marital arts card after a drug test taken June 25 came back positive for anabolic steroids. The commission learned of the results Tuesday and immediately denied Barnett a license.
“Our primary concern is for the health and safety of fighters,” David Thornton, interim executive director of the California State Athletic Commission, said in a statement. “Anabolic agents and other banned substances put the users of those agents at risk, as well as their opponents. The commission simply will not tolerate their use.”
A message left with Affliction vice president Tom Atencio was not returned.
The commission said Barnett’s sample was tested at the World Anti-Doping Agency facility at UCLA. Barnett has the right to appeal the denial of his license.
The 31-year-old Barnett was expected to fight Emelianenko in the main event at the Honda Center on Aug. 1, on a card promoted by Affliction Entertainment and M-1 Global in association with Golden Boy Promotions and Donald Trump.
It was unclear whether Emelianenko (30-1) would remain on the card.
Barnett (24-5) also failed a post-fight drug test in 2002, after he defeated Randy Couture to win the UFC’s heavyweight title. Barnett’s license to fight was suspended by the Nevada State Athletic Commission after a hearing in which he denied having used performance-enhancing drugs.
The former wrestler spent some time fighting in Japan, where he beat Emelianenko’s brother Aleksander during the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix, before returning to the United States.
He fought in the inaugural Affliction show last July, knocking out Pedro Rizzo in the second round to avenge his first career loss. In January, Barnett stopped Gilbert Yvel in the third round of the second Affliction show before 13,228 fans at the Honda Center.
Other fights scheduled for “Affliction: Trilogy” included Renato Sobral against Gegard Mousasi, Vitor Belfort against Jorge Santiago and Yvel against Paul Buentello.
1) Brock Lesnar is going to be UFC heavyweight champion for a long time. For the first time, the UFC has absolutely dominant champions in pretty much every weight division now that Lesnar is clearly the cream of the crop in the UFC HW division. Frank Mir never had a chance. Lesnar is such an incredible mix of power and speed and strength that I haven’t seen from any other heavyweight ever. It’s unfortunate we’ll probably never get to see Lesnar fight Fedor Emelinanenko, because I was so impressed with how much better Lesnar looked last night that I think he not only has the best shot at beating Fedor, but that I’d predict a Lesnar win if the two ever were to fight.
2) It’s time for Georges St-Pierre to step up to middleweight. After dominating the one clear-cut contender in the welterweight division in Thiago Alves, consider the 170-pound weight class cleaned out. Right now, i think the winner of Mike Swick vs. Martin Kampmann is the guy in line for the next title shot. Yikes. Neither one of those guys has a prayer against St-Pierre, leaving absolutely nothing left to gain at 170. It’s time for St-Pierre to move up and fight Anderson Silva in the single biggest fight the UFC is capable of putting on right now.
3) Dan Henderson is simply the man. One of the nicest, most humble, classy guys I’ve ever met in MMA, and yet, he is responsible for a couple of the most brutal knockouts I’ve ever seen. I didn’t think he’d ever be able to top his KO of Wanderlei Silva in PRIDE, but he did exactly that with his trademark overhand right that put Michael Bisping to sleep. Bisping was clearly out before Henderson followed up with another huge punch on the ground and had no idea what happened when he regained consciousness. I know I just called for St-Pierre to step up and fight Anderson Silva for the middleweight title, but Henderson now clearly deserves a rematch after impressive wins over Rich Franklin and Bisping back-to-back. Bisping hopefully learned a lesson in humility because after talking all the trash he did during the Ultimate Fighter reality show, he wound up becoming a poster boy for the next installment of UFC’s Ultimate Knockouts.
And with that, I’ll leave you with a very interesting question. I’ll have an answer for you guys in a couple of days, and it might not be the answer anyone wants to hear.
Question of the day: Who will be the first of the five UFC champions to lose his belt first? B.J. Penn (lightweight), Georges St-Pierre (welterweight), Anderson Silva (middleweight), Lyoto Machida (light heavyweight), or Brock Lesnar (heavyweight)?
Name: Brock Lesnar Height: 6-foot-3 Weight: 265 pounds Age: 31 Record: 3-1 (2-1 UFC) Key wins: Heath Herring, Randy Couture Key defeats: Frank Mir
Name: Frank Mir Height: 6-foot-3 Weight: 245 pounds Age: 30 Record: 12-3 (10-3 UFC) Key wins: Brock Lesnar, Tim Sylvia, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Key defeats: Marcio Cruz, Brandon Vera
Betting odds:
Brock Lesnar (-170) vs. Frank Mir (+200)
Breakdown: First of all, it surprises me a lot that Mir is considered a 2:1 underdog after the way he completely destroed Nogueira in December. Nogueira had never been stopped in an MMA fight, and that includes fights against almost everybody in the heavyweight division, including twice against Fedor Emelianenko.
This is a great fight to show people the true spirit of MMA. Brute strength and power against a skilled technician who can break your arm any number of ways. Mir came in at a chizzled 245 pounds for Friday’s weigh-in, looking the best I think I have ever seen him before a fight. Everything Mir has said and done leading up to the fight has me thinking he couldn’t be any more ready for this as he looks to unify the UFC heavyweight title.
As for Lesnar, you know what you’re going to get from him. Freakish strength and freakish wrestling skills. He’s going to want (and be able) to take Mir down at will and try to pound out a victory. The question is going to be if it’s like the first time these two faced off. Will Mir be able to catch a submission off the ground and has Lesnar trained enough to be able to counter Mir’s submission attempts? Lesnar only has four fights in his professional career, and in his two UFC wins over Herring and Couture, he never really had to worry about submissions.
I’ve seen it too many times in MMA to be fooled again. Lesnar has to show he can avoid Mir’s slick submission skills on the ground, and my gut is telling me it won’t. I think this fight will go a lot like the first one. Lesnar shows off his power early and takes Mir down with ease, but from there, I think Mir manages to maneuver his way into a submission that Lesnar can’t stop. Mir pulls off the upset (according to the betting lines) and becomes the unified UFC heavyweight champion in the biggest moment of his career.
Prediction: Frank Mir by submission in the first round
Name: Georges St-Pierre Height: 5-foot-10 Weight: 170 pounds Age: 28 Record: 18-2 (12-2 UFC) Key wins: B.J. Penn x2, Matt Hughes x2, Jon Fitch Key defeats: Matt Hughes, Matt Serra
Name: Thiago Alves Height: 5-foot-9 Weight: 170 pounds Age: 25 Record: 22-4 (9-2 UFC) Key wins: Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, Karo Parisyan Key defeats: Jon Fitch, Spencer Fisher
Betting odds:
Georges St-Pierre (-280) vs. Thiago Alves (+220)
Breakdown: Alves gets his shot at the welterweight belt after running through some of the top competition in the division, including Hughes, Koscheck and Parisyan. Alves will be perhaps the best striker that St-Pierre has faced as GSP’s recent fights have come against ground guys in Penn, Fitch and Serra.
Alves will have to answer early whether he can tag St-Pierre standing with some strikes. GSP has looked like a machine at 170 after completely dominant wins in his last three fights. You have to figure that St-Pierre gets a takedown at some point in the fight. How Alves reacts to being on the bottom with St-Pierre in his guard could go a long way in determining the outcome of the fight.
The best chance for a title change is if St-Pierre decides to stand and trade with Alves. The beauty of St-Pierre however is he is skilled at everything and is like Dan Henderson in the way that he’ll try to fight you in the area that he feels is your biggest weakness. That’s why I don’t expect St-Pierre to stand and trade with Alves. Expect him to keep him at bay early with a lot of kicks, and then try to shoot in and close the distance between the two and either get the fight to the ground or mix up in a lot of dirty fighting against the cage.
The spotlight is on Alves in a way it hasn’t been before. All the pressure is on him, and we’ll see how he responds to it, but in the end, I don’t think he has enough to take out a man who is unquestionably on pace for a superfight for the ages against Anderson Silva in the future.
Prediction: Georges St-Pierre by TKO (strikes) in Round 2.
Name: Michael Bisping Height: 6-foot-2 Weight: 185 pounds Age: 30 Record: 18-1 (7-1 UFC) Key wins: Chris Leben, Matt Hamill Key defeats: Rashad Evans
Betting odds (from Mandalay Bay):
Dan Henderson (-225) vs. Michael Bisping (+175)
Breakdown: One constant theme you will see with all of the main fights from Saturday night is there is one guy with the clear experience advantage in all of them. The biggest difference might be here as Dan Henderson has fought for a long time against the best of the best. Anderson, Rampage, Wanderlei, both Nogueira brothers, Ricardo Arona, Renzo Gracie, Babalu. The quality of competition makes Henderson’s 24-7 overall record much more impressive than Bisping’s 18-1 record against relatively limited opposition. Bisping has never been in the ring against the caliber of a Henderson, which is why Hendo is about a 2:1 favorite.
Henderson has always been known for his overhand right, but it’ll be interesting to see who has the advantage standing. Where Henderson will own Bisping is with his wrestling, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this fight go somewhat like the Rampage/Henderson fight, with a lot of takedowns and ground maneuvering, but not a lot of clean ground and pound. Bisping’s key is he will have to use his speed, be quick with his hands and try to frustrate Henderson, who is getting close to the 40-year-old mark.
I go back to the Bisping/Matt Hamill fight, a fight in which I thought Hamill clearly won, and even though Bisping has improved tremendously since then, I think a similar pattern will evolve in this fight. Bisping won’t be able to hurt Henderson on his feet and when he wants to, Henderson will be able to shoot in and take down Bisping at will. I see Henderson controlling most of this fight, and grounding out a pretty one-sided unanimous decision victory.
The UFC has gone all out this weekend for UFC 100 with three main event type fights in one night. Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir will unify the UFC heavyweight championship; Georges St-Pierre will defend his welterweight title against Thiago Alves for the first time since crushing B.J. Penn in January; and Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping will battle for a likely middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva after coaching their respective teams in the recent Ultimate Fighter reality show.
If you haven’t seen it by now, hopefully you still have your Sunday Star-Bulletin handy, because entry forms were printed to win a piece of the UFC 100 Ocatagon canvas used Saturday night.
Check back this week as we expect for the first time to bring you the weigh-ins for the show LIVE on this blog on Friday afternoon.
From August 8, 2009 By Billy Hull
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