UFC 100: Lesnar vs. Mir

Date July 10, 2009

Photo: Ultimate Fighting Championship

 Photo: Ultimate Fighting Championship

Name: Brock Lesnar
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 265 pounds
Age: 31
Record: 3-1 (2-1 UFC)
Key wins: Heath Herring, Randy Couture
Key defeats: Frank Mir

Name: Frank Mir
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 245 pounds
Age: 30
Record: 12-3 (10-3 UFC)
Key wins: Brock Lesnar, Tim Sylvia, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Key defeats: Marcio Cruz, Brandon Vera

Betting odds:
Brock Lesnar (-170) vs. Frank Mir (+200)

Breakdown: First of all, it surprises me a lot that Mir is considered a 2:1 underdog after the way he completely destroed Nogueira in December. Nogueira had never been stopped in an MMA fight, and that includes fights against almost everybody in the heavyweight division, including twice against Fedor Emelianenko.

This is a great fight to show people the true spirit of MMA. Brute strength and power against a skilled technician who can break your arm any number of ways. Mir came in at a chizzled 245 pounds for Friday’s weigh-in, looking the best I think I have ever seen him before a fight. Everything Mir has said and done leading up to the fight has me thinking he couldn’t be any more ready for this as he looks to unify the UFC heavyweight title.

As for Lesnar, you know what you’re going to get from him. Freakish strength and freakish wrestling skills. He’s going to want (and be able) to take Mir down at will and try to pound out a victory. The question is going to be if it’s like the first time these two faced off. Will Mir be able to catch a submission off the ground and has Lesnar trained enough to be able to counter Mir’s submission attempts? Lesnar only has four fights in his professional career, and in his two UFC wins over Herring and Couture, he never really had to worry about submissions.

I’ve seen it too many times in MMA to be fooled again. Lesnar has to show he can avoid Mir’s slick submission skills on the ground, and my gut is telling me it won’t. I think this fight will go a lot like the first one. Lesnar shows off his power early and takes Mir down with ease, but from there, I think Mir manages to maneuver his way into a submission that Lesnar can’t stop. Mir pulls off the upset (according to the betting lines) and becomes the unified UFC heavyweight champion in the biggest moment of his career.

Prediction: Frank Mir by submission in the first round

Category Posted in Fights