UFC 101 breakdown
August 8, 2009
Well that was a mess. No comments on the UFC video and I couldn’t log in here to get this breakdown up earlier in the week.
ANYWAY, UFC 101 is tonight and here’s a look at the biggest fights on the card.
Photos courtesy Ultimate Fighting Championship
UFC lightweight championship fight
B.J. Penn (13-5-1) vs. Kenny Florian (13-3)
Penn returns to the 155-pound division against the clear-cut No. 1 contender in Florian who has won his last six fights. Florian is a very diverse striker and has excellent ground skills. Easily the toughest test Penn has had since returning to the lightweight division, but oddsmakers still have the Prodigy at more than a 2:1 favorite.
The goal for Florian is obviously to stay out of Penn’s way early, get the fight into the championship rounds, and try to hopefully take over then. Penn, however, looks great and UFC President Dana White was quoted as saying Penn’s in the best shape he has ever seen. That would help in this fight if I thought it was going to go the distance, but I don’t. Penn TKO’d Sherk, but in wins against Joe Stevenson and Jens Pulver, his best friend was the rear naked choke. I think we see that same Penn in this fight, taking advantage of an early mistake by Florian to get his back and work a rear naked choke submission in either the first or second round. Penn retains the title and gets ready for his next defense against Diego Sanchez.
Anderson Silva (24-4) vs. Forrest Griffin (16-5)
One is the current champion at a lower weight class, the other is a former champion at this weight class. Forrest Griffin was chosen as Silva’s opponent for the simple fact that every time Forrest gets in the ring, he comes right at you and doesn’t stop. Silva is coming off two straight lackluster fights, but Griffin is the guy to press the action and give Silva a high-octane fight no matter what he tries.
Unfortunately, it plays right into the hands of the most dominant striker in all of MMA. Silva will use his incredible stand-up skills to pick apart Griffin as he comes in swinging wildly. Maybe Griffin tries to change it up and go for takedowns, but I doubt it. That’s not who he is. Expect Anderson to pick apart Griffin early and often and finish this fight in the first round, showing the Anderson Silva of old.
Kendall Grove (12-5) vs. Ricardo Almeida (10-3)
Kendall Grove looks to make it three straight wins with a victory over Ricardo Almeida. This fight is pretty simple. If you’re a Grove fan, feel good when the fight is on the feet and be worried if it hits the ground. Almeida is a horse on the ground and if he can get Grove down on the mat and keep him there, it will be a long night for the Maui native.
The big advantage for Grove is his reach. At 6-foot-6, it’s going to be extra hard for Almeida to shoot in and get a takedown without eating some vicious knees that we’ve seen from Grove. If Grove can frustrate Almeida and stop his takedowns early, he can then pick him apart standing with his superior striking ability. Almeida is a slight favorite in this fight, and I can see him maybe getting a takedown or two, but ultimately, Grove will be able to scramble back to his feet and will catch Almeida in an exchange, ending the fight by TKO in the second round.
Shane Nelson (13-3) vs. Aaron Riley (27-11-1)
Without really doing any serious research, I was thinking back to some of the famous rematches in UFC history and who won. Georges St-Pierre beat B.J. Penn for the second time in a row, but in the other ones I thought of (Couture/Liddell, Hughes/Penn, Penn/Pulver, Mir/Lesnar, Henderson/Silva, Hughes/St-Pierre), the guy who lost came back to win the next fight.
I don’t know if that means it’s harder to beat a guy twice in a row or not, but that’s the obstacle facing Nelson in his rematch with Riley after the first fight was stopped prematurely. Nelson was the underdog in that fight and is again here, but has gone through the best training camp of his career working with Penn in California. I expect a very close fight that could go either way, but I don’t like the odds of beating a guy twice in a row, especially when the two are so closely matched. I think Riley spoils a 3-0 night for Hawaii fighters with a TKO win of his own, but don’t count Nelson out one bit.
UFC 101: Declaration
Oceanic PPV (Dig. 701/1701)
4 p.m. Hawaii time
$56.99
Posted in Fights
