October 4th, 2012

U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono’s campaign on Thursday released the results of a new internal poll that shows the Hawaii Democrat with a double-digit lead over former Gov. Linda Lingle, the Republican, for U.S. Senate.

The poll, by the Benenson Strategy Group of Washington, D.C., has Hirono at 54 percent and Lingle at 37 percent, a 17-point gap. Nine percent were undecided.

The telephone survey was taken among 600 likely voters from Sept. 18 to Sept. 20. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

*Update: The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”

12 Responses to “+17”

  1. NikkiHeat:

    Mazie better bank a lot of those +17 as soon as absentee ballots arrive in voters’ mail boxes, especially on the Kauai and Maui where there ain’t many competitive races on the General Election Ballot– with Barry and Tulsi shoo-ins to win in Hawaii, and county council races relatively unexciting in those two counties (don’t know if the Kauai Persecutor’s race is ugly or not), who knows what kind of turn-out your gonna see without a strong GOTV effort. On Maui, only State Senator Roz Baker (South & West Maui) has a GOP opponent while Reps. Carroll (Molokai, Lanai, E. Maui), Yamashita (Upcountry Maui) and McKelvey (W. Maui) have relatively easy general election contests. South Maui has newcomer Kaniela Ing taking on the GOP incumbent but Mazie has never run strong in that region. The Democratic stronghold of Central Maui has NO legislative races in the General Election since Senate President Shan Tsutsui and the two Reps. Speaker Emeritus Joe Souki (Waihee-Wailuku-Waikapu) and Keith Agaran (Kahului-Puunene-Wailuku) were elected outright in the Primary Election. With all the $ the former Governor has, it could be an ugly final weeks in campaign (and her argument that Hawaii needs to be part of the GOP wave in the U.S. Senate is hurt by the recent National outlook that the GOP may not takeover the Senate afterall).

  2. Auto De Fe:

    Poor Nikki still doesn’t know the difference between heat and love. Did somebody burst your meme?

  3. Manoa_Fisherman:

    Cook Report is very conservative and if they are calling the race to “lean democrat”, the GOP on the Beltway will be flushing Lingle down the toilet tomorrow.

  4. Kolea:


    I have to disagree with a few points in your analysis. You clearly are not in touch with Kauai politics if you think the county council race is “relatively unexciting” and have to wonder if the Prosecutor’s race is going to stimulate turnout. Kauai voters have nine candidates for seven seats and two of the candidates will be voted off the island. The current Kauai prosecutor, Shaylene Iseri-Carvalho, is at least as dysfunctional as the Big Island county clerk, but somehow the Honolulu media have ignored the problems on Kauai while subjecting the Big Island election problems to a spotlight. The Kauai council and prosecutor races will very likely lead to a bump in voting on Kauai.

    Maui may not have competitive down-ticket races, so I will concede that may suppress the turnout. But I do not understand your conclusion that the turnout for Kaniela Ing in Kihei would not likely provide a bump in that district for Mazie? Yes, it tends to be Republican, kind of. But surely a Kaniela win, should it occur, could only happen if Democratic leaning voters turnout in higher numbers than Republicans?

    Your last sentence about the Governor’s access to a lot of money seems to have tripped the second half of the sentence. It does appear the Dems will retain control of the US Senate, though it is still too close for any voter to rely upon that assumption. Clearly the influx of mainland money has led to an increase in the number and variety of television ads for Lingle. Undoubtedly, it has also strengthened their Voter ID program, their GOTV effort and other important aspects which are invisible to the public. So, I agree, the race will undoubtedly tighten from the current 17% lead both Civil Beat and Mazie’s internal poll are reporting.

    I wonder if you can disentangle your closing sentence and clarify what you meant to say? Thanks.

  5. Goober:

    @Auto De Fe:
    When you come out of limbo tell me your idea. If not
    stay there and read more on Dante’s Inferno.

  6. Auto De Fe:

    Goober: Didn’t I meet you in the 9th circle?

  7. mkz:

    Don’t know about you, but every day I hear Lingle has stronger convictions. Lingle cares about us. Lingle will never be a puppet. Lingle makes decisions. Lingle will make a great Senator after being a council woman, mayor and governor. Lingle knows the issues and will vote how I would vote. And, I met Lingle…she is cordial, nice and listened. So…Cook is 6000 miles away and doesn’t see what I/wesee? Prediction: Lingle by 4 on election day.

  8. Goober:

    Is that your idea Auto De Fe?
    Commenting in Circles?

  9. Goober:

    lingle only cares about the 1%.
    Romney’s world is that 47% don’t pay taxes or enough.
    1% is Romney, Trump and few others.
    52% is the middle class that pays taxes to make up for the 47%
    and the 1% who pay less than their share.
    Add 47% and 52% and you get 99%.

  10. Chicken Grease:

    October 8th, 2012 at 7:21 pm

    lingle only cares about the 1%.
    Romney’s world is that 47% don’t pay taxes or enough.
    1% is Romney, Trump and few others.
    52% is the middle class that pays taxes to make up for the 47%
    and the 1% who pay less than their share.
    Add 47% and 52% and you get 99%.

    Wow. All figured out. Can cancel the election now. Service.

  11. Goober:

    A grease, still talking to the empty chair on your left?

    “Wow. All figured out.” Not much else to say?
    The book, book from an empty library? Go figure out what disservice you
    do for two cents daily.

  12. NikkiHeat:

    My last point is that the former Governor’s ads have been negative regarding Ms. Hirono (portraying the sitting congresswoman as essentially do-nothing) and she has the $ to keep hammering that point regardless of any fact-check organizations debunking some of the assertions. But the GOP nominee’s argument that Hawaii will be better off having a split Senate delegation assumes that the Harry Reid will lose his majority after the election- that’s somewhat in doubt now.
    As for the Kauai races, still not sure the council races will be enough — Kauai has a small electorate and any margin in favor of Ms. Hirono can easily be off-set by a decisive win by the former Maui Mayor in South Maui. Young Mr. Ing will not drive the turnout in South Maui; the carpet bagging twenty-something year old challenging the experienced retired South Maui Police Captain and community leader will need big pro-Obama coattails because I assume the GOP will whack him with the campaign spending violation complaints the GOP recently filed (and filed too late to be heard and resolved by the Campaign Spending Commission before the General Election).
    The Democratic strongholds are in Central Maui which voted against the former Mayor in her races for Governor (against Ben Cayetano and, if I recall correctly, against Ms. Hirono)- if Ms. Hirono comes out only even on Maui, she may lose if Oahu doesn’t go her way.

Leave a Reply