+17
By ddepledge
U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono’s campaign on Tuesday released an internal poll that showed Hirono up over Case 50 percent to 33 percent in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
The poll was taken from telephone interviews by the Benenson Strategy Group of Washington, D.C., among 500 likely primary voters from July 30 through Aug. 1. The margin of error was 4.3 percentage points.
The Hirono campaign released the poll in advance of the expected release of an automated poll by the online news service Civil Beat on Wednesday. Civil Beat’s previous polls have suggested the primary is a dead heat.
Strategically, the Hirono campaign has been operating for months with the belief — reinforced through internal polling — that Hirono has a solid lead. The campaign waited until July to launch most of its advertising, with the messages aimed at the Democratic base and at former Gov. Linda Lingle, the leading Republican, not at Case.
Political Radar
August 7th, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Even UHPA, a union which is supporting Case, has shifted the focus of its ads to attack Lingle. I take that as a sign they do not want to waste scarce resources on trying to shave votes from Mazie and are turning instead to the common mission of defeating Lingle and helping the Democrats (hopefully) hold onto control of the US Senate.
In a normal campaign, both candidates would have pivoted away from negative statements by now, trying to create a final impression of being likable. Ed’s delay in doing this suggests his own polling shows he is in trouble. So he has persisted in negativity beyond the proper cutoff date. (Kinda like wearing white after Labor Day).
August 7th, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Methinks everbahty looking forward to Lingle vs. Hirono . . . see if Hirono can pull it out. No t’ink can.
August 7th, 2012 at 9:57 pm
lingle will turn and flow with her party of 1%. she is a republican and not for Hawaii.
Talking about Tourism is shibai. The support of the Akaka Bill was shot down by republicans. lingle will be seen and not heard since she will be a “Mrs. Smith goes to Washington”. lingle does not need help losing, she lost since 2008.
What would a journalist major know? Good Grammar does not make a leader.
lingle is damaged goods to many eyes in Hawaii. lingle cannot save jobs, so what makes you think she can create jobs. Is Cutter Nissan hiring?
August 9th, 2012 at 2:45 am
As far as reliable polling in any political race, the only company that I know of is SMS Research that can really call an election. Jim Dannemiller is the one that really knows his stuff for over 40 years and hits it right on the nose, most times. The only problem is that the most akamai politicians who are quick on the draw hires Dannemiller early on to keep his expertise under contract and away from the opposition and, unfortunately, from the public.