Here is an updated rundown of potentially competitive state House and Senate races for the November general election. We have dropped several races that were likely settled in the primary and have updated our assessments of others, based on interviews with political analysts and insiders.
Overview: Majority Democrats hold an overwhelming share of seats in the state House and Senate. Democrats have made gains in the past few election cycles under Gov. Linda Lingle — a Republican — and could again this year, especially if Democrats drive turnout in the governor’s race. Republicans have set the modest goal of doubling their numbers in both chambers. With a handful of open seats in competitive districts — and the potential for the civil-unions debate to bring religious conservatives to the polls — Republicans have a chance to pick up a few seats.
State Senate:
Democrats: 23
Republicans: 2
State House:
Democrats: 45
Republicans: 6
State Senate
*SD20 (Ewa Beach, Waipahu)
Sen. Will Espero (D)
(Total raised: $59,587)
Tito Montes (R)
(Total raised: $15,420)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Espero has raised his profile on issues such as rail, returning prisoners from the Mainland, and restricting fireworks. The district’s changing demographics from new housing projects could make it more competitive for the GOP. Montes, a Navy veteran and military research analyst, is an articulate and aggressive campaigner who may appeal to many young families and people with military ties who are concerned about the economy. Montes will need to step up fundraising to compete.
*SD24 (Kailua, Kaneohe)
Sen. Jill Tokuda (D)
(Total raised: $80,528)
Tracy Bean (R)
(Total raised: $39,777)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Tokuda has blossomed over the past few years and has earned praise for her work on protecting important agricultural land, Native Hawaiian affairs, and the University of Hawaii. She also led an investigation into mismanagement at the Bureau of Conveyances and was one of the leading critics who helped block the second confirmation of Peter Young as director at the state Department of Land and Natural Resources. But the district is among the most competitive in the Senate, and Tokuda could be vulnerable in her first re-election campaign, particularly if voters make civil unions a dominant issue. Bean, like Tokuda, was raised on the Windward side. She runs a nonprofit with her husband and is part of a network of religious conservatives who oppose civil unions.
*SD25 (Kailua, Waimanalo, Hawaii Kai)
Virginia Enos (R)
(Total raised: $11,402)
Pohai Ryan (D)
(Total raised: $14,325)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Republican. Senate Minority Leader Fred Hemmings opted not to seek re-election. Enos is a Kailua Neighborhood Board member. Ryan is a staffer to state Sen. Brickwood Galuteria.
State House
*HD4 (Puna, Pahoa, Hawaiian Acres)
Rep. Faye Hanohano (D)
(Total raised: $19,082)
Marlene Hapai (R)
(Total raised: $22,575)
Solomon Singer (N)
(Total raised: $2,654, including $700 in loans)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Hanohano, a former prison guard, is chairwoman of the House Public Safety Committee. She is active on Native Hawaiian affairs and cultural issues, often speaking Hawaiian on the House floor. She also helped move a bill last session to give counties the option to ban fireworks. But changing demographics in the fast-growing region, along with the independent spirit of many residents, makes the district among the most quirky and unpredictable. Hapai, a former University of Hawaii regent appointed by Gov. Linda Lingle, could be competitive.
*HD6 (N. Kona, Keauhou, Kailua-Kona)
Rep. Denny Coffman (D)
(Total raised: $20,913)
Becky Leau (R)
(Total raised: $7,436, including $2,029 in loans)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Coffman was among the freshmen who crafted a barrel tax increase on petroleum products to help finance food security and alternative energy programs. The district is friendly to Republicans and could be hard for Coffman to hold if the GOP runs strong in Kona in the governor’s race. Leau, a contractor, is active with religious conservatives and may get support from the local tea party.
*HD11 (Makena, Wailea, Kihei)
Rep. Joe Bertram III (D)
(Total raised: $8,934)
George Fontaine (R)
(Total raised: $11,774)
Outlook: Tossup. Bertram was thought to be the most endangered House incumbent in 2008, when he raised little money for his first re-election campaign and alienated House leadership by publicly stating he would not vote for House Speaker Calvin Say for speaker if he won. He has since been criticized for defending a friend on trial for Internet enticement of a minor and has declared bankruptcy for the second time because of medical expenses and tax debts. His signature issues have been expanding access to medical marijuana and promoting bike paths and greenways. Fontaine, a retired police captain, was one of the Republicans’ best prospects two years ago.
*HD18 (Kuliouou, Niu Valley, Aina Haina)
Mark Jun Hashem (D)
(Total raised: $13,555, including $10,000 in loans)
Chris Pei-Ji Baron (R)
(Total raised: $26,967)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Republican. Rep. Lyla Berg left to run in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. Baron, a state clean energy planner who worked for homeland security, the State Department and the National Security Council in the Bush administration, grew up in the Republican friendly district. He also has Hawaii Christian Coalition backing. Hashem surprised many Democrats by winning the primary.
*HD28 (Palama, Chinatown, Downtown)
Rep. Karl Rhoads (D)
(Total raised: $88,387)
David Chang (R)
(Total raised: $50,741)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Rhoads, an attorney, steered the House Labor Committee during a difficult few years and did much of the heavy lifting on a bill to soften an unemployment insurance tax increase on businesses. But Republicans believe Chang — an entrepreneur, military veteran and minister named the Young Business Leader of the Year by Pacific Business News — has a shot.
*HD36 (Pearl City, Momilani, Pacific Palisades)
Rep. Roy Takumi (D)
(Total raised: $56,928)
Reed Shiraki (R)
(Total raised: $21,644)
Outlook: Democratic. Takumi is the respected chairman of the House Education Committee and the district has been a fortress for traditional Democrats. Republicans, however, warn against counting out the underdog Shiraki, a prominent chiropractor known for an honor box payment system to help his patients afford care. Shiraki is also a Mormon who has the support of the Hawaii Christian Coalition, which could bring civil unions into play.
*HD41 (Waipahu, Village Park, Waikele)
Ty Cullen (D)
(Total raised: $13,615, including $5,965 in loans)
Carl Wong (R)
(Total raised: $100 in loans)
Outlook: Open seat. Tossup. Rep. Jon Riki Karamatsu is leaving to run in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. Competitive precincts in Village Park and Waikele make this a potential swing district.
*HD42 (Waipahu, Honouliuli, Ewa)
Rep. Rida Cabanilla (D)
(Total raised: $20,392)
Tom Berg (R)
(Total raised: -$8,836)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Cabanilla became more visible on policy issues such as helping the homeless as chairwoman of the House Housing Committee. But she had to be rescued by House leaders after mishandling a bill to allow flagpoles to fly the American flag in planned communities, a controversy that energized many military veterans and conservatives. Berg is Cabanilla’s former office manager who now works for Rep. Kymberly Pine, a Ewa Beach Republican who was behind the flagpole bill. A rematch of 2008.
*HD43 (Ewa Beach, Iroquois Point, Puuloa)
Rep. Kymberly Pine (R)
(Total raised: $47,264)
Jason Bradshaw (D)
(Total raised: $20,885)
Outlook: Leans Republican. Pine, a former Republican aide, has been an organizer for tea party and anti-tax rallies. She was also the only House lawmaker to vote against diverting money from the state’s hurricane relief fund to help end teacher furloughs. Pine wanted to borrow, not take, money from the hurricane fund. Plugged into her demographically shifting district, Pine won re-election in 2008 with more than 70 percent of the vote and took 63.5 percent in 2006. Bradshaw, a former Democratic aide, is political director of the AFL-CIO and has shown some fundraising ability. His message? “We can do better!”
*HD45 (Waianae, Makaha, Makua)
Rep. Maile Shimabukuro (D)
(Total raised: $17,222)
Jadeen Meyers (R)
(Total raised: $7,596)
Outlook: Democratic. Shimabukuro, a legal aid attorney who grew up in Waianae, has been an advocate for human services and Native Hawaiian affairs and is well-connected in the Democratic leaning district. But the district is known for low voter turnout. Republicans think Meyers, who was also raised in Waianae and who serves as an associate youth pastor at a Christian church where her parents are pastors, could pull an upset, especially if civil unions becomes an issue.
*HD46 (Schofield, Mokuleia, North Shore)
Larry Sagaysay (D)
(Total raised: $10,845)
Gil Riviere (R)
(Total raised: $22,267)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Republican. Rep. Michael Magaoay is leaving to run in the Democratic primary for the state Senate. Riviere, a mortgage broker and leader of Keep the North Shore Country, could take a district that has been slowly trending Republican.
*HD47 (Laie, Hauula, Punaluu)
Rep. Jessica Wooley (D)
(Total raised: $44,478)
Richard Fale (R)
(Total raised: $17,763)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Wooley, an attorney, is a progressive who is active on issues such as food and energy security. She has also been an advocate for Hawaiian families who were facing eviction from Kahana Valley State Park. She is in her first re-election campaign after defeating Colleen Meyer, the most conservative Republican in the House, two years ago. Her opponent, Richard Fale, is in the Army reserve and operates a nonprofit on Polynesian culture. He also farms. Fale is a Mormon who could draw votes from Laie and other precincts that reliably went with the conservative Meyer in the past.