`Big Mo’

January 30th, 2012

Former congressman Ed Case issued a fundraising appeal on Monday touting the results of a new poll that shows him in a close race with U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

The automated telephone poll, by Civil Beat and the Merriman River Group, had Case up on Hirono 41 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error was 2.7 percentage points. The poll was taken among 1,358 likely voters on Jan. 18 and Jan. 19.

Case, who trails Hirono in fundraising and endorsements, titled his appeal “The Big Mo”:

What it all means is that as voters think through the choice between me and Mazie, about who can really do the job for us in the Senate over the next generation, we are gaining support and momentum. All of the DC/mainland special interest/PAC money and endorsements flooding her campaign are not changing that.

Betsy Lin, Hirono’s campaign manager, noted that Merriman River Group has polled for Case.

It’s troubling Civil Beat’s automated poll is conducted by the very same pollster who also conducts polls directly for Ed Case’s Senate campaign, despite the obvious conflict of interest this poses. Our own polling of actual likely Democratic primary voters shows Ed Case losing to Mazie Hirono by eighteen points — and given Mazie’s record in opposing George W. Bush’s Iraq War and opposing Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy, this isn’t a surprise.

*Update: On Tuesday, it was former Gov. Linda Lingle’s campaign that was critical of the poll, which showed the Republican trailing both Case and Hirono in hypothetical general election match-ups.

From retired Maj. Gen. Robert G.F. Lee, Lingle’s campaign manager:

The survey released today by Civil Beat does not line up with our own polling and appears to be slanted to the Democrat candidates. Even the Democrat Senate Congressional Committee (DSCC) has publicly dismissed the methodology of the automatic phone survey, calling it ‘troubling.’ With Gov. Lingle entering the U.S. Senate race just 113 days ago, the outpouring of support she has received statewide has been overwhelming. We know this is going to be a long, challenging race. Gov. Lingle will remain focused on working hard every day to earn the votes of the people of Hawaii by putting ‘people first’ and ensuring this election stays focused on the key issues that families in our state are faced with every day.

7 Responses to “`Big Mo’”

  1. Goober:

    Assumptions and Approximations. Nothing mo’.

  2. Chicken Grease:

    So boring the D side of this office election.

    Can’t wait to see Lingle have her way with either in debate, whewwwwwwww, going b PPV caliber!!!!!!

  3. galekaminari:

    Funny that this/his pollster shows Ed only neck and neck with Mazie, though against Colleen the pollster showed him way way ahead. So, maybe he is doing even worse than in the Special Election for CD1. LOL Maybe with that ol’ conflict of interest problem, we have to adjust the numbers on our own.

  4. Kolea:

    Ed’s campaign theme is that Washington is gridlocked due to excessive partisanship and that he is well-positioned to break the gridlock with his centrist approach. But this “diagnosis” rings false to most Democrats who deny “both sides” are equally guilty. President Obama has tried to compromise again and again with the Republicans, only to be blocked at each time. Many Democrats think Obama has already compromised too much, offering them proposals which were originally Republican ideas, only to have the GOP withdraw even further to the right.

    “Blue Dog” Democrats like Ed have made Obama’s job more difficult by siding with the Republicans and the corporate lobbyists. Ed’s own wellk-nown uncritical support for Bush’s war policies, long after most Americans had turned against continuing the warfare, undermined Democratic efforts to bring the wars to an end.

    Most Democrats, including Hawaii Democratic voters, want Obama to stand up to the Republicans and want to give him a congress which will make that possible. So Ed cannot win a majority of Democratic voters in his primary. The latest poll shows he draws 40% of his support from Republicans. Perhaps that would provide a “bi-partisan” mandate for him. But those same voters told the pollster they would abandon Ed to vote for Lingle in the General Election. They hope to use Ed to defeat Mazie in the primary, then abandon Ed and vote for Lingle in the General. Great electoral strategy, Ed. Great for the Republicans. Not so good for the Democrats.

  5. Malia:

    Those of us who want Governor Lingle to win in November should resist the urge to vote for Ed Case, no matter how much we dislike Hirono. I have no doubt Ed Case is the stronger candidate against the Governor and would be harder to defeat than the ultra-liberal Mazie Hirono.

  6. Goober:

    lingle will not get in because she is not for Hawaii but for herself. 1% since she was silverspoon fed. 1% don’t care about the people but the “party”.

  7. rocket:

    I bet the poll is right on the money. Same polling company did the neil mufi race and it was dead-on. All of these guys are posturing to keep their base confident in their ability to win. Political campaigning 101.

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