Hypothetical

March 30th, 2011
By

Public Policy Polling, in a new survey for the liberal website Daily Kos and SEIU, shows the potential Democratic contenders for U.S. Senate doing better against former Gov. Linda Lingle, a Republican, in hypothetical match-ups.

The Democrats also did better against former Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona and former congressman Charles Djou, other possible Republican candidates.

U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka, D-Hawaii, has said he would not seek re-election in 2012, creating a rare open seat.

The poll was conducted between March 24 and March 27 among 898 registered voters statewide. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

The horserace:

Ed Case (D): 52
Linda Lingle (R): 35
Undecided: 12

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 51
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 9

Mufi Hannemann (D): 47
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 14

Mazie Hirono (D): 52
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 9

Ed Case (D): 50
Duke Aiona (R): 35
Undecided: 15

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48
Duke Aiona (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Mufi Hannemann (D): 42
Duke Aiona (R): 42
Undecided: 16

Mazie Hirono (D): 49
Duke Aiona (R): 42
Undecided: 10

Ed Case (D): 53
Charles Djou (R): 35
Undecided: 12

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 50
Charles Djou (R): 40
Undecided: 10

Mufi Hannemann (D): 46
Charles Djou (R): 40
Undecided: 14

Mazie Hirono (D): 51
Charles Djou (R): 40
Undecided: 9

The poll also found that President Barack Obama has a 64 percent job approval rating. Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s job approval rating, however, was 48 percent.

10 Responses to “Hypothetical”

  1. Kolea:

    Interesting numbers. And they seem to line up with the limited numbers Ed Case was willing to release from his own poll.

    But polling numbers this far out are only suggestive of possibilities. Right now, Lingle is still suffering a negative perception from her years as Governor. Given a bit of time and a conscious, well-financed effort to rehabilitate her reputation and I suspect a lot of the tarnish” will be buffed off. There will be millions more dollars flowing in from national Republican and corporate connections for Lingle than for any of the Democratic canidates.

    My dad had a pilots license. He would warn me about “sucker holes,” which are clearings in the cloud cover capable of misleading a pilot into thinking they could safely pass through them to find clear skies, only to find the clouds closing in on them once they have committed. In the days before modern instrumentation, these were obviously more dangerous than today.

    I worry about polling numbers like this “suckering” some politicians into believing they have a shot at the Senate seat when a “common sense” analysis of their strengths and weaknesses would keep them (relatively) sober and very safe.

    OTOH, nothing great is every achieved without audacity.


  2. ohiaforest3400:

    How come I haven’t gotten an email from Ed Case essentially trumpeting the inevitability of his coronation as junior senator and suggesting that I send him $ to congratulate him?


  3. Teddy Freddy:

    Everybody so close together. Let’s see now who is content with the safety of holding their existing office, and who has the “fire in the belly” and willing to go for it. Is a given that Ed and Mufi are going to jump, as they have little to lose (except the rest of their political future and zillions of dollars that have to be raised). Mazie, though she looks surprising strong here will have to surprise us as most think she will sit tight in the safety and warmth of her House seat. Colleen most likely is not yet ready to jump unless pushed hard and promised a safety net – she probably has not even moved in properly and even finished decorating her new House office. And what about the “powers that be”, the inside money guys, the unions, the local political power players, that national big shots – who would they want and who are they willing to push into the race and how much will they promise in terms of money and support? Seems like the price of poker just went up.


  4. Hmmm:

    The important poll is Case v. Muff, Case v. Mazie and Case v. Hanabusa…

    The daily kos missed the mark


  5. Aaron:

    Is Aiona the strongest Republican? Really?


  6. charles:

    A horse race poll at this juncture is more for chitchat over a few beers. It has very little meaning beyond that.


  7. Yoshi1940:

    Is Daily Kos guy, Case’s friend? I seem to recall something like that from the Special Election last year.

    Floating out, and getting a good response, is the idea of a possible Senate run by the very personable former Gov. Waihee, who is no stranger to the halls of Congress, and while reportedly a supporter of fellow Son of Hawaii, Pres. Obama, is also a friend of Bill and Hillary Clinton.

    Donna Kim must be miffed that her name was left out of the polling. Guess even all the way over in Beltway land, Daily Kos got that much figured out. Looks like Kim and Mufi are no longer close, or Mufi is not really planning on giving up his cushy job, lest he get trounced again.

    This round, the person we elect should be experienced enough and suitable for immediately training up to become the delegation team captain, but young enough to serve around 18 years. The time to elect a young senator from the next generation is when Inouye steps down. That person would season under this round’s eventually senior senator, and build seniority.


  8. flynhyn@gmail.com:

    At Yoshi1940: Daily Kos is far from being supportive of Case, they are a far left blog and Ed is a committed Moderate.


  9. Koa Tree:

    Daily Kos actually was somewhat critical of Ed Case. Mr. DePledge left that part of the article out for some reason.


  10. Kolea:

    There are intriguing, suggestive tidbits in the data, so I recommend real political junkies ought to sift through the complete set of numbers.

    Ed Case may be the strongest candidate against Lingle in the General, but first he would have to survive the Democratic primary, where he is much less popular than some of the alternative candidates. Looking at the data confirms my impression that his performance in the last election has damaged him fatally. His best chance of winning the Democratic primary is if the field splits into enough camps that his plurality can prevail. But in the General, he would need to have all the Democrats rally behind him to defeat Lingle. And that is unlikely. His disapproval rating among Democrats is just too high.

    A lot can happen between now and Fall 2012. The numbers for Ed strike me as pretty solid, though his numbers would rise if Democrats come to see him as the Best Chance. Lingle’s numbers will rise if Abercrombie continues to stumble and once the national GOP dollars start flooding into the state to rehabilitate her image.

    I continue to believe Schatz is not interested and Duckworth may feel flattered, but will not run either.

    I disagree with Hmmm over the Daily Kos’s choice of questions. At this stage, it is probably more important to ask these sort of questions. There will be plenty of time to focus in on the relative popularity of the candidates in a Democratic primary. Right now, we gotta assess the broader question what viable talent we have available to us.


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