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Lean Democrat

November 18th, 2011
By ddepledge

The Rothenberg Political Report, which analyzes political campaigns nationally, moved the Hawaii U.S. Senate race from “safe Democrat” to “lean Democrat” after former Gov. Linda Lingle entered the campaign in October.

Unlike other political analysts, Rothenberg does not consider the Hawaii race a tossup, but believes it will be competitive enough to force the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to spend money in a state where Democrats traditionally rule. U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono and former congressman Ed Case are the Democratic contenders against the Republican Lingle.

From Rothenberg:

The Senate has been “in play” for months, but Republicans continue to expand the playing field by adding unexpected candidates in states from Hawaii and Michigan to Connecticut – all states where the GOP shouldn’t even be in the ballgame.

Even if the races in those states don’t go down to the wire, national Democratic strategists won’t be able to ignore them entirely, possibly forcing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to spend scarce resources in states it once expected to take for granted. Democrats are now defending four of the six most vulnerable Senate seats – and eight of the most vulnerable ten.

5 Responses to “Lean Democrat”

  1. Goober:
    November 18th, 2011 at 9:09 pm

    A “lean democrat”? Which way? 1% or 99%?
    Many lean in the direction their strings are being pulled from.


  2. john c:
    November 18th, 2011 at 10:20 pm

    The Republican brand is on a downhill slide right now, and by next year . . . .


  3. Kolea:
    November 19th, 2011 at 3:06 am

    Rothenberg makes some good points, but goes off-course when he says Lingle is an “unexpected candidate” for the Senate. MOst politically active people in Hawaii have been predicting Lingle would run for the Senate once her terms as Governor ran out.

    I do agree the race still “leans Democrat.” The national Republican and corporate political networks are probably going to pump near ten million $ into Lingle campaign chest, mostly because they are hoping the Republicans can take control of the Senate with the same kind of reactionary, obstructionist leadership which now control the US House. If Lingle wins in Hawaii, that MAY make the difference and tip control to the GOP. Hawaii voters do not want the US Senate to go Republican.


  4. Goober:
    November 21st, 2011 at 12:49 pm

    Republicans have built their campaign on a slope. Mrs. Smith is already in Washington. Hirono will not lose twice to lingle.


  5. Hawaiino:
    November 23rd, 2011 at 8:02 pm

    Mazie as a principled but naive political neophyte ?
    Man are you off base! Her campaign is a public worker union exercise.


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