Quick draw
September 21st, 2010
By ddepledge
By ddepledge
The Republican Governors Association has put up a fresh $219,000 for advertisements backing Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona for governor, bringing the total to more than $600,000.
The ads are electioneering communications and are not coordinated with the Aiona campaign. The outside help, however, gives Aiona a bump against former U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who had to spend most of his campaign money to beat former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann in the primary on Saturday.
Here’s the latest ad, which began airing Monday:
Posted in In Politics | 8 Comments »
Political Radar
September 21st, 2010 at 9:30 pm
And where does the Republican Governor’s Association money come from?
Well, to start, Fox News gave them a cool million dollars. Not counting all the free air time they give them.
September 21st, 2010 at 10:11 pm
I’m not sure what the RGA is seeing here. Even if ALL of Mufi’s primary election voters go to Duke (which not all or most will), he still comes up short to Abercrombie’s total.
But, hey, if they want to waste their kala here, who am I to say otherwise?
September 22nd, 2010 at 1:45 am
If I were running Abercombie’s campaign, I would not be overcomed with the idea that the General Election is an automatic win for Neil that some people feel after “trouncing” Hannemann. Take a good look and you will see a lot of GOP cross over voting for Abercrombie.
For instance, why in traditional GOP strongholds, did Abercrombie do so overwelmingly well? A lot of haole voters? Perhaps, but the Democratic primary ballot is not an area where that district’s voters would normally be found in.
The General Election will be closer than many people think. Though Abercrombie definitely has the edge going in the race.
September 22nd, 2010 at 9:54 am
In this primary, Abercrombie pulled just a few thousand more votes than the political juggernaut Randy Iwase did in 2006. And Duke, in his primary, pulled a few thousand more votes than Lingle did in her ‘06 primary.
(For those who have a short memory, Lingle trounced Iwase in the general — by the largest margin of victory ever in Hawaii, if I recall.)
This is going to be a close general election, make no mistake. And it would be the height of hubris to think the RGA has not considered Aiona’s chances of victory prior to pushing more money into the race and doesn’t believe he has a legitimate chance to win.
September 22nd, 2010 at 10:52 am
I still don’t understand how they can have Duke in those “Rise and Shine” ads with an obviously studio-produced monologue, while still remaining “not coordinated.” A picture, a video clip, I can understand, but the way these ads look smack of violation.
September 22nd, 2010 at 11:28 am
Ohia,
I’m not sure of your math. Are you simply adding Mufi’s primary vote total to Duke’s to reach your conclusion? The Democratic primary always draws 4 to 6 times as many votes as the GOP primary. But in the General, the numbers are much closer. If we look at the few statewide races where a Republican won (well, I guess the only example is Lingle), her GOP primary vote was way below that of the Democratic nominee, yet she won.
Neil’s astonishing victory over Mufi was partly a sign of support for Neil. But a LOT of it was a repudiation of Mufi. And a good chunk of that anti-Mufi vote came from people who fully intend to vote for Aiona in the General.
The RGA is swimming in money. The SCOTUS decision that “corporations are people, too” has started to unleash a flood of corporate money, though the exact scale of it can only be determined after the election.
Duke has a serious chance of winning this race. Folks made confident by the scale of Neil’s triumph over Mufi may want to re-calibrate their thinking for the General. The narrative and dynamics which will take hold are not yet obvious. At least, not obvious to this observer.
Mufi misplayed his hand terribly, and was unable to self-correct because of his arrogance and the “Yes man” authoritarian climate within his campaign organization. Neil played competently and never lost his cool. Aiona’s team has its share of dingbats, starting with the GOP chair. But there are some smart operatives in there as well.
I think the national Republicans see great propaganda advantage in having the voters of Obama’s home state elect another Republican Governor. It fits their desired narrative that “Obamaism” is being rejected all over. Except maybe in Kenya.
September 22nd, 2010 at 12:13 pm
If the mainland Republicans are putting money into Duke’s race, it’s a safe bet that it will show up in the form of nasty, negative personal attacks against Neil. That is pretty much all they know how to do. In the meantime, Duke spent $2.3 million on a primary race when he had no serious opposition, which computes to $54 for every vote he got. That’s a lot of first-class air fares, fancy hotels and limos! Turns out that “Duke” is aptly named.
September 22nd, 2010 at 1:05 pm
OK, folks, let’s not read too much into that comment in #2. I’m not at all suggesting this won’t be a contest and perhaps I underestimate the amount of post-”Citizens United” cash that the RGA has available. I’m just sayin’ that it seems like an awful lot of money, awful quick on the heels of a surprisingly powerful showing by Neil.
Notwithstanding all of your good comments, I still think it’s Neil’s race to lose.