Temperature check

May 23rd, 2012

A consortium of construction trade unions on Wednesday released results of private polls showing declining support for former Gov. Ben Cayetano in the race for Honolulu mayor.

The survey was conducted by Tulchin Research for the Pacific Resource Partnership, an advocacy group for the state’s unionized carpenters and contractors and a prominent supporter of the city’s rail project.

Cayetano is running against incumbent Mayor Peter Carlisle and former city Managing Director Kirk Caldwell.

According to the poll, when asked who they would select if the mayoral contest were decided today, 33 percent said Cayetano, down from 38 percent in January. Carlisle was at 30 percent, up from 29 percent in January, and Caldwell was at 21 percent, up from 18 percent at the start of the year. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points on the May poll and 3.9 percentage points on the January poll.

You can view the poll’s methodology here: TulchinPoll_Rail.

A poll conducted in February by the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now showed Cayetano at 44 percent, followed by Carlisle at 35 percent and Caldwell at 16 percent (margin of error: +/- 4.2 percent).

The poll also found “support for the rail transit project is higher now than at any other point since we started surveying voters on the subject.”

According to Tulchin, 46 percent of those surveyed said they support the rail project, compared to 44 percent in May 2011. Meanwhile, 49 percent said they opposed the project, down from 54 percent a year ago.

5 Responses to “Temperature check”

  1. galekaminari:

    Support for Rail continues to plummet, so how could this poll be accurate?

  2. kama'aina808:


    You have Caldwell running against himself in your first ‘according to the poll’ example. While he might be silly enough to do it, I’m positive you meant Carlisle to be one of those… but which one?

    Also, from your lead-in, I expected to read that Cayetano was in the 3rd position, as well as that the ‘pro-railers’ were outgunning the ‘anti-railers’ – but no, Cayetano & ‘no’ to rail are still in the lead. May they remain so. :-)

  3. Time 4 Change:

    Even PRP own poll could not change the fact that a majority of the people still hate rail and support Cayetano because of his stance.
    Auwe PRP.

  4. Auto De Fe:

    Even the pro-rail lobby can’t gin up a poll to make rail look popular any more….

  5. Goober:

    All of Hawaii and not just Oahu can use part of the estimated 5 billion. Our Federal Tax dollars will be used for a engine with a big “caboose” that will be paid by our children and their children. 20 miles or concrete structures and a restroom at each mile stop. Rail will kill two birds with one stone. Give shelter and use of restrooms to homeless and create jobs for those companies that paid big “donation” for construction jobs. We will be working for Hawaii for free, since all wages go to union dues, federal and state and for County employee bonuses. Ask yourself, How many cars in mile of road? Don’t vote for hanneman in congress. His idea, his blunder.

    Temperature? I feel hot around the neck for improper use of our TAX DOLLARS.

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